20 July, 2009

The Elliott Wave Principle and the Tour de France

In Crude Oil: Tour de Forecast :

"According to mainstream economic thought -- fundamentals are to financial markets what tire pressure is to a Tour de France bicycle racer. To wit: Inflated (i.e. positive) news makes it easier for a market to soar up those steep mountain hills (i.e. price charts). AND, deflated (i.e. negative) news makes prices fall behind and struggle to climb.
In reality, however, this is NOT true. Take the Crude Oil market, for example. Over the past week, the amount of air in certain "fundamental tires" hasn't changed a bit. YET, the performance of oil prices has been all over the map."
Too bad the writer didn't fully explain the metaphor. Over inflated tires give a rough, bumpy ride, offer poor traction, and are slower than tires at the proper inflation. Under-inflated tires give a smoother ride, but are slower and risk flats.
I'm sure there's no tie to markets here.

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